6.18 trillion yuan! In 2023, China's foreign trade will start steadily

 In the first two months of 2023, China's foreign trade started steadily. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on March 7, from January to February this year, China's total import and export value was 6.18 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 3.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; imports were 2.68 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.9%; the trade surplus was 810.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. Lv Daliang, director of the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has generally achieved a smooth start.

In terms of major trading partners, China's imports and exports to ASEAN maintained growth in the first two months, while imports and exports to the EU, the United States, and Japan declined. Statistics show that in the first two months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner. The total value of bilateral trade reached 951.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 15.4% of China's total foreign trade value. The European Union, the United States and Japan are China's second to fourth largest trading partners, and the total value of imports and exports with China has declined to varying degrees in the first two months. In terms of product exports, mechanical and electrical products, which accounted for the largest proportion of exports, continued to grow. In the first two months, China exported 2.03 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, accounting for 58% of the total export value. Among them, the export of mobile phones was 163.35 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%. The export of automobiles was 96.83 billion yuan, an increase of 78.9%, which is still the bright spot of exports.

Compared with the end of last year, China's exports in the first two months of this year have narrowed the decline rate, which is also significantly better than the market expectations calculated by the "Wall Street Journal", Reuters and some market institutions.

Reuters quoted the opinions of economists interviewed as saying that China made optimized adjustments to the prevention and control of the epidemic in December last year. In the future, with the recovery of consumer confidence, imports will gradually recover, but the slowdown of foreign economic recovery will also have a negative impact on China. Exports are affected. Peng Ailuo, Chief Economist of Greater China at ING Bank, believes that high inflation levels in the United States and Europe have made local market demand continue to weaken, thus affecting China's exports.

Li Xiaofeng, an analyst at the market organization Dongfang Jincheng, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 7th that in the first two months of this year, China's exports fell year-on-year, which was basically consistent with the decline in export growth of major trading countries in the world. Under the downward pressure on the global economy, global trade is weakening simultaneously. Li Xiaofeng gave an example, "As one of the barometers of the global macro economy, the growth rate of South Korea's exports from January to February this year was -12.1%, a year-on-year negative growth for five consecutive months; Vietnam's exports from January to February were -1.9% year-on-year. , also showing a continuous downward trend." Li Xiaofeng believes that in the context of the decline in China's exports, China's exports to ASEAN have recorded relatively rapid positive growth, behind which is the entry into force of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) in early 2022, tariff reduction arrangements 1. Trade facilitation further reduces the cost of China-ASEAN trade cooperation. In addition, Li Xiaofeng believes that the volume and price of China's auto exports have risen in the first two months, with a surge of 43.2% and 65.2% respectively, reflecting that the upgrading of the domestic auto industry, mainly new energy vehicles, has a significant role in promoting foreign trade.

Zhou Maohua from the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank told the Global Times reporter that from the perspective of export structure, China’s foreign trade exports are diversified, the proportion of high-tech products and private enterprises’ exports has increased, and China’s foreign trade export structure has continued to optimize; China’s exports to Europe and the United States in January and February The slowdown in foreign trade export growth not only reflects the impact of a high base, but also reflects the slowdown in demand from economies such as Europe and the United States. From the perspective of trends, high inflation, high interest rates and continuous compression of savings in major overseas economies have a negative impact on consumer confidence and spending power. Coupled with the base effect last year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports is under pressure to slow down. However, as overseas inflation slows down, interest rate hikes end in the second half of the year, overseas demand bottoms out, and the base weakens, it is expected that China's foreign trade exports are expected to improve in the third and fourth quarters.

In 2022, China's foreign trade will hit a new high, and the scale of import and export of goods will exceed 40 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 42.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, ranking first in the world for six consecutive years and becoming a bright spot in China's economy.

However, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on March 2 that at present, the risk of recession in the world economy is rising, stagflation is emerging, and the external environment has brought severe challenges to China's trade. Wang Wentao believes that the pressure on China's foreign trade will increase significantly in 2023, mainly due to the weakening of external demand. In addition, the risk of world economic recession is rising, and the impact of protectionism and geopolitics will bring negative impacts to Chinese foreign trade enterprises. Wang Wentao also said, "Generally speaking, this year is to stabilize the scale and optimize the structure. First, keep the basic scale of the scale. At the same time, with China's industrial upgrading, economic development, and improvement of comprehensive strength, the foreign trade structure must be optimized to strengthen the comprehensive competition of foreign trade. strength." Wang Wentao emphasized, "In the final analysis, the situation this year is relatively severe, but we are more confident."

Li Xiaofeng also told the "Global Times" reporter that due to the impact of the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, recently, many places in China are organizing foreign trade companies to "go out" and "invite in" overseas customers, which has significantly increased the development of overseas markets. This will play a certain role in mitigating the decline in exports in the first half of the year.